{"id":1038,"date":"2017-06-04T15:19:45","date_gmt":"2017-06-04T15:19:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/?p=1038"},"modified":"2017-06-04T15:19:45","modified_gmt":"2017-06-04T15:19:45","slug":"after-iranians-vote-for-reform-a-bigger-question-looms-who-will-be-the-next-supreme-leader","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/?p=1038","title":{"rendered":"After Iranians’ vote for reform, a bigger question looms: Who will be the next supreme leader?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The agenda of newly reelected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani could hinge on the process to replace the ailing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pictured. (Vahid Salemi \/ Associated Press)<\/p><\/div>\n

Los Angeles Times – June O3. 2017 –<\/span> By\u00a0Shashank Bengali<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Ramin Mostaghim\u00a0Contact Reporter<\/a><\/em>\u00a0–<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>After President\u00a0Hassan Rouhani<\/a>\u2019s\u00a0decisive reelection<\/a>, talk in Iran has turned to the future of an even larger political figure: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Although the topic is taboo in Iran, the question of who will succeed Khamenei, who is 77 and ailing, reportedly from prostate cancer, loomed over the May 19 election. Rouhani, a relative moderate, won 57% of the vote in a four-man field, demonstrating strong public support for his policies of economic pragmatism, international engagement and expanding social freedoms.<\/p>\n

But in Iran\u2019s theocracy, one vote matters most: that of the supreme leader.<\/p>\n

Khamenei and the hard-line \u201cprinciplist\u201d faction that is close to him have indicated impatience with Rouhani\u2019s economic policies and outreach to the West \u2014 especially the\u00a02015 nuclear agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Following the election results, Khamenei congratulated Iranians on a stout 75% voter turnout but did not mention Rouhani, who captured a second four-year term. The move fueled speculation of a rift and led some observers to predict that the supreme leader would curtail the president\u2019s reform efforts by anointing a fellow hard-liner to succeed him.<\/p>\n

Here are the key questions surrounding Iran\u2019s leadership transition:<\/p>\n

How important is the selection of the new supreme leader?<\/h3>\n

Extremely important. Ali Vaez, Iran analyst for the International Crisis Group, calls it \u201cthe most pivotal moment in the history of the Islamic Republic.\u201d<\/p>\n

The supreme leader has the last word on all domestic and international policies, and Khamenei is only the second man to lead Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. His successor will be tasked with winning over a youthful population \u2014 half of Iranians are younger than 30 \u2014 that wants more openness and less confrontation.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe majority of the people have no firsthand experience of what the revolution was and the ideals that people fought for,\u201d said Amin Farroukhi, a PhD student in Tehran.<\/p>\n

But the transition comes as Iran\u2019s ruling establishment faces growing instability abroad, including from a Trump administration that wants to isolate Iran and is\u00a0cozying up<\/a>\u00a0to Tehran\u2019s archenemy, Saudi Arabia. The growing tensions could produce a more hawkish successor.<\/p>\n

How is he chosen? (Yes, it\u2019s always been a \u2018he.\u2019)<\/h3>\n

Upon the leader\u2019s death, an 88-member, all-male council known as the Assembly of Experts votes in a secretive process not unlike the selection of the pope. A two-thirds majority is required, and a committee is already considering possible candidates.<\/p>\n

Khamenei ascended to the position in 1989 after the death of the founding supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani virtually guaranteed Khamenei\u2019s accession by announcing that he had been Khomeini\u2019s choice to succeed him.<\/p>\n

Rafsanjani, a wily political operator,\u00a0died in January<\/a>, and there is no one of his stature to mastermind another transition, especially with Iran so polarized between reformists and hard-liners.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe authority that Khomeini\u2019s words had back then, and that someone like Rafsanjani had back then\u2026 I\u2019m not sure those dynamics will play out this time,\u201d said Adnan Tabatabai, chief executive of the Berlin-based Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient.<\/p>\n

In that vacuum, Iran\u2019s security establishment, led by the elite Revolutionary Guard, could seek to control the process and ensure the appointment of a hard-line leader who would oppose sweeping reforms or rapprochement with the West that would threaten the Guard\u2019s economic and political interests.<\/p>\n

[The transition represents] the most pivotal moment in the history of the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n

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Has Khamenei indicated a choice for his successor?<\/h3>\n

Not explicitly. But he is widely believed to favor someone like Ebrahim Raisi, whom Rouhani defeated in the election.<\/p>\n

Raisi, 56, was a relatively obscure former judge when Khamenei selected him in March 2016 to head Iran\u2019s wealthiest religious foundation. This year, when Raisi declared his candidacy for president, it suggested that hard-liners close to Khamenei were aiming to raise Raisi\u2019s stature to position him as a potential successor.<\/p>\n

Although urban middle-class Iranians rejected Raisi\u2019s ultra-conservative views \u2014 as a judge he reportedly presided over the executions of political prisoners \u2014 he became a household name and managed almost 37% of the vote<\/p>\n

\u201cHe won 16 million votes and went from anonymity to the spotlight in 40 days,\u201d said Hamid Reza Taraghi, a political analyst who is close to Khamenei\u2019s office. \u201cI am sure that if the campaign had lasted 60 days, he would be the president-elect. In the years to come, he has a chance to promote himself and be one of the candidates for succession.\u201d<\/p>\n

Raisi has continued making public appearances since the election, signaling that he intends to keep building his profile.<\/p>\n

Can Rouhani and the moderates influence the process?<\/h3>\n

Although Rouhani\u2019s camp made gains in\u00a0last year\u2019s elections<\/a>\u00a0to the Assembly of Experts, it is still controlled by hard-liners. Rouhani is believed to covet the leadership, but analysts say his best hope is to try to enthrone a fellow pragmatist.<\/p>\n

That will be difficult. Although Rouhani is a member of the assembly, hardly any fellow members supported him in the election, Taraghi said.<\/p>\n

If Khamenei dies during Rouhani\u2019s term and the assembly fails to agree on a successor immediately, Rouhani would form part of a temporary three-member council that would assume the supreme leader\u2019s powers until a replacement is elected.<\/p>\n

Did the election have any impact?<\/h3>\n

Iran\u2019s moderate and reformist faction has now won three straight national elections and controls the presidency as well as parliament. The clerical establishment relies on the elections to legitimize its rule, and experts say that hard-liners know they risk social unrest if they don\u2019t acknowledge the voters\u2019 will.<\/p>\n

That could insert a new factor into the discussion of Khamenei\u2019s replacement: popularity.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition to someone who is well connected with the clerical, security and political establishments, he will need some sort of broad-based acceptance among the people,\u201d Tabatabai said.<\/p>\n

Rouhani\u2019s backers say they will continue to press for reforms, such as the release of opposition\u00a0Green Movement<\/a>\u00a0leaders from house arrest, which the president supported. Pro-Rouhani campaign rallies echoed with slogans such as: \u201cOur message is clear \u2014 the house arrests should be lifted.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIn recent weeks you see Green Movement slogans even in small towns, and someday this can be a nationwide slogan,\u201d said Siavash Ramesh, a 28-year-old tour guide and activist. \u201cWe have to make good on these slogans and fight for accountability from the current supreme leader and his successor.\u201d<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los Angeles Times – June O3. 2017 – By\u00a0Shashank Bengali\u00a0and\u00a0Ramin Mostaghim\u00a0Contact Reporter\u00a0–\u00a0After President\u00a0Hassan Rouhani\u2019s\u00a0decisive reelection, talk in Iran has turned to the future of an even larger political figure: Supreme<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[244],"class_list":["post-1038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-human-rights","tag-hassan-rohani"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1038"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1038\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1039,"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1038\/revisions\/1039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iransos.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}