Bush 'plans Iran air strike by August'
May 28, 2008
By Muhammad Cohen
NEW YORK - The George W Bush administration plans to launch an
air strike against Iran within the next two months, an informed
source tells Asia Times Online, echoing other reports that have
surfaced in the media in the United States recently.
Two key US senators briefed on the attack planned to go public
with their opposition to the move, according to the source, but
their projected New York Times op-ed piece has yet to appear.
The source, a retired US career diplomat and former assistant
secretary of state still active in the foreign affairs
community, speaking anonymously, said last week that that the US
plans an
air strike against the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC). The air strike would target the
headquarters of the IRGC's elite Quds force. With an estimated
strength of up to 90,000 fighters, the Quds' stated mission is
to spread Iran's revolution of 1979 throughout the region.
Targets could include IRGC garrisons in southern and
southwestern Iran, near the border with Iraq. US officials have
repeatedly claimed Iran is aiding Iraqi insurgents. In January
2007, US forces raided the Iranian consulate general in Erbil,
Iraq, arresting five staff members, including two Iranian
diplomats it held until November. Last September, the US Senate
approved a resolution by a vote of 76-22 urging President George
W Bush to declare the IRGC a terrorist organization. Following
this non-binding "sense of the senate" resolution, the White
House declared sanctions against the Quds Force as a terrorist
group in October. The Bush administration has also accused Iran
of pursuing a nuclear weapons program, though most intelligence
analysts say the program has been abandoned.
An attack on Iraq would fit the Bush administration's declared
policy on Iraq. Administration officials questioned directly
about military action against Iran routinely assert that "all
options remain on the table".
Rockin' and a-reelin'
Senators and the Bush administration denied the resolution and
terrorist declaration were preludes to an attack on Iran.
However, attacking Iran rarely seems far from some American
leaders' minds. Arizona senator and presumptive Republican
presidential nominee John McCain recast the classic Beach Boys
tune Barbara Ann as "Bomb Iran". Democratic candidate
Hillary Clinton promised "total obliteration" for Iran if it
attacked Israel.
The US and Iran have a long and troubled history, even without
the proposed air strike. US and British intelligence were behind
attempts to unseat prime minister Mohammed Mossadeq, who
nationalized Britain's Anglo-Iranian Petroleum Company, and
returned Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to power in 1953. President
Jimmy Carter's pressure on the Shah to improve his dismal
human-rights record and loosen political control helped the 1979
Islamic revolution unseat the Shah.
But the new government under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
condemned the US as "the Great Satan" for its decades of support
for the Shah and its reluctant admission into the US of the
fallen monarch for cancer treatment. Students occupied the US
Embassy in Teheran, holding 52 diplomats hostage for 444 days.
Eight American commandos died in a failed rescue mission in
1980. The US broke diplomatic relations with Iran during the
hostage holding and has yet to restore them. Iranian President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad's rhetoric often sounds lifted from the
Khomeini era.
The source said the White House views the proposed air strike as
a limited action to punish Iran for its involvement in Iraq. The
source, an ambassador during the administration of president H W
Bush, did not provide details on the types of weapons to be used
in the attack, nor on the precise stage of planning at this
time. It is not known whether the White House has already
consulted with allies about the air strike, or if it plans to do
so.
Sense in the senate
Details provided by the administration raised alarm bells on
Capitol Hill, the source said. After receiving secret briefings
on the planned air strike, Senator Diane Feinstein, Democrat of
California, and Senator Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana,
said they would write a New York Times op-ed piece "within
days", the source said last week, to express their opposition.
Feinstein is a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee and
Lugar is the ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations
Committee.
Senate offices were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, so
Feinstein and Lugar were not available for comment.
Given their obligations to uphold the secrecy of classified
information, it is unlikely the senators would reveal the Bush
administration's plan or their knowledge of it. However, going
public on the issue, even without specifics, would likely create
a public groundswell of criticism that could induce the Bush
administration reconsider its plan.
The proposed air strike on Iran would have huge implications for
geopolitics and for the ongoing US presidential campaign. The
biggest question, of course, is how would Iran respond?
Iran's options
Iran could flex its muscles in any number of ways. It could step
up support for insurgents in Iraq and for its allies throughout
the Middle East. Iran aids both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas
in Israel's Occupied Territories. It is also widely suspected of
assisting Taliban rebels in Afghanistan.
Iran could also choose direct confrontation with the US in Iraq
and/or Afghanistan, with which Iran shares a long, porous
border. Iran has a fighting force of more than 500,000. Iran is
also believed to have missiles capable of reaching US allies in
the Gulf region.
Iran could also declare a complete or selective oil embargo on
US allies. Iran is the second-largest oil exporter in the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and fourth-largest
overall. About 70% of its oil exports go to Asia. The US has
barred oil imports from Iran since 1995 and restricts US
companies from investing there.
China is Iran's biggest customer for oil, and Iran buys weapons
from China. Trade between the two countries hit US$20 billion
last year and continues to expand. China's reaction to an attack
on Iran is also a troubling unknown for the US.
Three for the money
The Islamic world could also react strongly against a US attack
against a third predominantly Muslim nation. Pakistan, which
also shares a border with Iran, could face additional pressure
from Islamic parties to end its cooperation with the US to fight
al-Qaeda and hunt for Osama bin Laden. Turkey, another key ally,
could be pushed further off its secular base. American
companies, diplomatic installations and other US interests could
face retaliation from governments or mobs in Muslim-majority
states from Indonesia to Morocco.
A US air strike on Iran would have seismic impact on the
presidential race at home, but it's difficult to determine where
the pieces would fall.
At first glance, a military attack against Iran would seem to
favor McCain. The Arizona senator says the US is locked in
battle across the globe with radical Islamic extremists, and he
believes Iran is one of biggest instigators and supporters of
the extremist tide. A strike on Iran could rally American voters
to back the war effort and vote for McCain.
On the other hand, an air strike on Iran could heighten public
disenchantment with Bush administration policy in the Middle
East, leading to support for the Democratic candidate, whoever
it is.
But an air strike will provoke reactions far beyond US voting
booths. That would explain why two veteran senators, one
Republican and one Democrat, were reportedly so horrified at the
prospect.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told
America's story to the world as a US diplomat and is author of
Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news,
love, betrayal, high finance and cheap lingerie.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please contact us for information on
sales, syndication and
republishing.) ###
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE28Ak01.html